In a constitutional carry state, you do not need any training or a permit to carry a firearm. The researchers claimed to have used “advanced statistical modeling” to support their claim.

The study looked at 34 states that made it easier to carry a gun between 1980 and 2019 and compared them to “predicted” crime rates using data from “may issue” states.

Professor Cassandra Crifasi said, “If you graph all of the states in the U.S. by their rate of gun death from the highest to the lowest, a very clear pattern emerges.”

Several factors make this study inaccurate, but let’s look at the one that jumped out first. If you sort the data differently, you will get a different result.

The researchers used “advanced statistical modeling,” but @AHistory pointed out on X that ten of the fifteen states with the lowest homicide rates are constitutional carry. These states have some of the least restrictive gun laws since they are constitutional carry states.

Here are fifteen of the safest states based on factual homicide data, not “predicted” crime rates.

The researchers used the same old talking points that don’t hold up under scrutiny. “When states made it easier for potentially untrained gun owners to carry their weapons in public, assaults with guns increased.”

Part of that can’t be backed up with reliable data because what do they consider assaults?

“While the Supreme Court’s Bruen decision is forcing some states to weaken their concealed carry permitting systems, this study shows that states can reduce the expected increase in gun assault rates by including training requirements.”

This video from @wethepewple tries to explain the confusion since the gun control groups seem to be using fussy math.

Stricter concealed carry = safer? ?

S/o to @2aHistory for always dropping that ? data on schooling peeps on x?? pic.twitter.com/pOoAAwv3Jp

— #wethepewple (@we_the_pewple) December 4, 2023

Bloomberg Professor Daniel Webster said, “This study shows that making the concealed carry permitting process more rigorous can have a major impact on public safety.”

Since you do not need a permit to “constitutional carry,” the evidence doesn’t seem to support the idea that “more rigorous” training will impact “public safety.”

Military Conflict

War and preparation for war engulf the world. The Ukraine conflict lumbers on and shows no sign of ending anytime soon. Governments worldwide are sending all their old ammunition to Ukraine, so they will need to refill their inventory, and they will be buying vast restocks for years to come. The Israel/Palestine situation will drive similar demand, and in the background sits the U.S./China “cold war.” United States Military procurement will always trump civilian supply because they buy in volume, and it can be multi-year deals.

Panic Buying

Of course, the above situations make civilians nervous. Add to that the polarized political landscape magnified by social media, and you have a veritable stampede for civilian ammunition sales (mainly in the U.S.).

Raw Materials and Components

We still haven’t returned to normal since COVID. Raw materials and components are far more expensive and sometimes unavailable. 12 gauge is becoming challenging to source in high volumes because of propellant, and even the internal wad is becoming a problem. Politics and war have affected some of the raw material supply, and some are just significantly backlogged since everything stopped for COVID. Logistics costs are double or triple pre-covid prices, and many carriers won’t even ship hazardous cargo as they have enough work with standard items.

Production Capability

Most producers run a pretty lean operation. They can’t afford to stockpile for rainy days because old ammunition loses value, especially for military supplies. They want new ammunition made to maximize shelf life. The manufacturers cannot just turn up numbers overnight. They may need to invest in new lines, extra factories, and more skilled workers. None of that is quick or easy. They may not even wish to if they believe high demand is temporary because nothing lasts forever.

Is There Going to be an Ammunition Shortage?

Do I bring any good news about potential ammunition shortages? Yes, if you have good, trusted connections, you will still find products. Some of the bigger players took steps to mitigate the above factors, so hopefully, things will not get as bad as they’ve been in the past.

I don’t know exactly what some labels the media are using mean, like “anarcho-capitalist” and “radical libertarian populist.” So, I spent a few hours reviewing his policies and listening to his speeches last night.

What Does Javier Milei Stand For?

He has proposed some significant reforms that many call radical, but I’m seeing some common sense. He can be very abrasive and blunt, so I can’t use his actual words for some of his views.

His governing philosophy is that “you can’t give s**t leftists an inch.”

• He’s Anti-China
• Thinks teaching gender education in school is brainwashing
• Anti-socialism
• Anti-woke
• Anti-globalist
• Anti-establishment
• He’s said, “redistributing wealth is a violent act”
• Climate change is a “lie of socialism”
• He believes criminals shouldn’t be allowed to immigrate to his country.
• You’ll have to look up what he said about Pope Francis and Mickey Mouse, but use your imagination.
• Pro-gun and wants to loosen gun control.

?? JAVIER MILEI, NUEVO PRESIDENTE DE LA ARGENTINA

HA ARRASADO EN LAS ELECCIONES#Elecciones2023 #EleccionesArgentina #EleccionesArgentina2023 #Ballotage2023 #Ballottage2023 pic.twitter.com/2coKzpd45s

— antiprogre.com (@antiprogrecom) November 19, 2023

Gun Control in Argentina

You can carry a firearm in Argentina, but it is not a simple and a nearly impossible process. You have to pass both physical and psychiatric examinations. Then, you are required to undergo firearm training and show proof of income.

You need to provide the reason you want the firearm, and once you get your permit for ownership, it has to be renewed continually.

In Argentina, there were over 1 million gun owners registered with 1.62 million guns in 2021. They estimate that there are another 1.6 million illegal weapons in the country, which once again shows gun control doesn’t work.

Argentina’s Economy

They counted over 26 million paper votes within hours, and he got 56% in his favor with a 76% voter turnout. In the US, we are still ironing out 2020.

They will not swear in Milei until December 10th, and with central bank interest rates at 133%, he is inheriting a train wreck. The inflation rate is currently 143%, and the central bank predicts it to be 185% by the end of the year if something doesn’t change.

Milei’s acceptance speech vowed “a limited government, respect for private property and free trade ” last night. The model of decadence has come to an end. There is no way back.”

He is a self-proclaimed populist who they have labeled a libertarian. I watched an interview where he said “libertarian” has a different meaning in his country compared to the US. Honestly, I can’t figure out the difference.

“If printing money would end poverty, printing diplomas would end stupidity” -Javier Milei, newly elected President of Argentina.

He’s like a Trump on steroids with no ego, and they both need a hairstylist. I see a pattern there.

Luckily, I managed to download a couple of videos because one is missing this morning, and getting to some others is hit or miss. The views are in the millions, so I’m sure the servers are struggling to keep up. Two tweets with videos are averaging 833,000 views per hour. That’s 10 million views between two videos; half the world hasn’t even been open for business.

The market is up over 12% already this morning, so someone thinks he’s got potential. Like him or not, he’s one to keep an eye on.

Market reaction to the election of Javier Milei to be president of Argentina. pic.twitter.com/OKVdgLoMx7

— Wall Street Silver (@WallStreetSilv) November 20, 2023