Yesterday, researchers from Johns Hopkins said gun-friendly states have the highest rates of gun deaths. The problem with this statement is that ten of the fifteen states with the lowest homicide rates are constitutional carry states.
In a constitutional carry state, you do not need any training or a permit to carry a firearm. The researchers claimed to have used “advanced statistical modeling” to support their claim.
The study looked at 34 states that made it easier to carry a gun between 1980 and 2019 and compared them to “predicted” crime rates using data from “may issue” states.
Professor Cassandra Crifasi said, “If you graph all of the states in the U.S. by their rate of gun death from the highest to the lowest, a very clear pattern emerges.”
Several factors make this study inaccurate, but let’s look at the one that jumped out first. If you sort the data differently, you will get a different result.
The researchers used “advanced statistical modeling,” but @AHistory pointed out on X that ten of the fifteen states with the lowest homicide rates are constitutional carry. These states have some of the least restrictive gun laws since they are constitutional carry states.
Here are fifteen of the safest states based on factual homicide data, not “predicted” crime rates.
The researchers used the same old talking points that don’t hold up under scrutiny. “When states made it easier for potentially untrained gun owners to carry their weapons in public, assaults with guns increased.”
Part of that can’t be backed up with reliable data because what do they consider assaults?
“While the Supreme Court’s Bruen decision is forcing some states to weaken their concealed carry permitting systems, this study shows that states can reduce the expected increase in gun assault rates by including training requirements.”
This video from @wethepewple tries to explain the confusion since the gun control groups seem to be using fussy math.
Stricter concealed carry = safer? ?
— #wethepewple (@we_the_pewple) December 4, 2023
Bloomberg Professor Daniel Webster said, “This study shows that making the concealed carry permitting process more rigorous can have a major impact on public safety.”
Since you do not need a permit to “constitutional carry,” the evidence doesn’t seem to support the idea that “more rigorous” training will impact “public safety.”